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Www Morgagemortgagebanker K Stocks Szh 1 Mortgage Mortgage Banker 2008经济危机综述（Economic crisis of 2008）

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The food and fuel crises were both discussed at the 34th G8 summit in July. Sulfuric acid (an important chemical commodity used in processes such as steel processing, copper production and bioethanol production) increased in price 6-fold in less than 1 year whilst producers of sodium hydroxide have declared force majeur due to flooding, precipitating similarly steep price increases.[1]

In the second half of 2008, the prices of most commodities fell dramatically on expectations of diminished demand in a world recession.
（在1980-2000的经济大萧条过后，我们看到了一个商品繁荣时期的到来，但是在2008年，多种商品的价格上涨，石油和食品价格的升高导致了全球的经济放缓和创伤。2008年1月，石油价格超过每桶100美元，更高的价格还在不断被刷新。同年7月，油价曾经一度达到每桶147美元。硫磺酸，氢氧化钠等化学原料的价格也受到巨大的冲击）
 

2、Trade（贸易问题）

In mid-October 2008, the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping volume, fell by 50% in one week, as the credit crunch made it difficult for exporters to obtain letters of credit.[2]
（10月中旬，波罗的海的干货运输量一个星期内跌了将近50%, 贸易信用证的危机也逐渐浮现）

3、Inflation（通货膨胀）
In February 2008, Reuters reported that global inflation was at historic levels, and that domestic inflation was at 10-20 year highs for many nations. "Excess money supply around the globe, monetary easing by the Fed to tame financial crisis, growth surge supported by easy monetary policy in Asia, speculation in commodities, agricultural failure, rising cost of imports from China and rising demand of food and commodities in the fast growing emerging markets," have been named as possible reasons for the inflation.
In mid-2008, IMF data indicated that inflation was highest in the oil-exporting countries, largely due to the unsterilized growth of foreign exchange reserves, the term “unsterilized” referring to a lack of monetary policy operations that could offset such a foreign exchange intervention in order to maintain a country´s monetary policy target. However, inflation was also growing in countries classified by the IMF as "non-oil-exporting LDCs" (Least Developed Countries) and "Developing Asia", on account of the rise in oil and food prices. [3]
Inflation was also increasing in the developed countries, but remained low compared to the developing world.
（2008年2月，路透社报道说全球的通胀率达到了历史最高水平，许多国家的通胀率都是10-20年来的最高。全球范围内的超额供给，亚洲的宽松货币政策，商品及农业生产的成本升高等，都是导致通胀的原因）

4、Unemployment（失业问题）
The International Labour Organization predicted that at least 20 million jobs will have been lost by the end of 2009 due to the crisis - mostly in "construction, real estate, financial services, and the auto sector" - bringing world unemployment above 200 million for the first time.[4]
(国际劳动组织预测，到2009年将有2千万人由于金融危机而失业，主要是建筑，房地产，金融服务和汽车制造等行业。其带来的世界范围内的失业人数将首次达到2亿)

二、洲际状况
1、North America  （北美洲）                           
U.S（美国）
The United States entered 2008 during a housing market correction, a subprime mortgage crisis and a declining dollar value. In February, 63,000 jobs were lost, a 5-year record. In September, 159,000 jobs were lost, bringing the monthly average to 84,000 per month from January to September of 2008. [2]
（2008年，美国陷入抵押贷款和美元贬值的危机。同年2月，63000人失业，达到了5年来的最高纪录。9月，159000人失业）
 
 

1．1）Possible recession（经济衰退）
In the early months of 2008, many observers believed that a U.S. recession had begun. As a direct result of the collapse of Bear Stearns, Global Insight increased the probability of a worse-than-expected recession to 40% (from 25% before the collapse). In addition, financial market turbulence signaled that the crisis will not be mild and brief.
Alan Greenspan, ex-Chairman of the Federal Reserve, stated in March 2008 that the 2008 financial crisis in the United States is likely to be judged as the harshest since the end of World War II. A chief economist at Standard & Poor's, said in March 2008 he has a worst-case-scenario in which the country could endure a double-dip recession in which the economy would briefly recover in the summer 2008. Under this scenario, the economy's total output, as measured by the gross domestic product, would drop by 2.2 percentage points, making it the third worst recession in the post World War II period.
White House budget director Jim Nussle said the U.S. avoided a recession following revised GDP numbers from the Commerce Department showing a 0.2 percent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2007 down from a 0.6 percent increase and a downward revision to 0.9 percent from 1 percent in the first quarter of 2008. The GDP for the second quarter was placed at 1.9 percent below an expected 2 percent. Martin Feldstein, who headed the National Bureau of Economic Research until June and serves on the group's recession-dating panel, said he believed the U.S. was in a very long recession and that there was nothing the Federal Reserve could do to change it.
In March 2008, Warren Buffett stated in a CNBC interview that by a "common sense definition", the U.S. economy is already in a recession. Warren Buffet has also stated that the definition of recession is flawed and that it should be 3 quarters of GDP growth that is less than population growth. However, the U.S. only experienced two consecutive quarters of GDP growth less than population growth.
（2008年初，许多经济观察家认为美国的经济衰退已经到来，全球范围来看的话比之前预期的还要多出四成。另外，金融市场的波动显示出了此次危机来势汹汹。在主要经济学家给出的推测来看，经济的总输出量，及国内生产总值将跌落2.2个百分点。美国国家经济研究局2008年三月曾指出，国家的经济正进入衰退，且可能造成非常严重的后果。许多的个人经济学家在当时的130亿的住房者的经济刺激下只给出了一个比较保守的预测。都觉得经济只是暂时的萧条，不会有很大的波动。白宫预算主管曾表示，第二季度的GDP 为1.9个百分点，低于预期的2个百分点. 美国的经济正式进入衰退期，联邦储备局也无力挽回局面.）

1．2）Rise in unemployment(失业升高)
On September 5, 2008, the United States Department of Labor issued a report that its unemployment rate rose to 6.1%, the highest in five years. The news report cited the Department of Labor reports and interviewed Jared Bernstein, an economist:
The unemployment rate jumped to 6.1 percent in August, its highest level in five years, as the erosion of the job market accelerated over the summer. Employers cut 84,000 jobs last month, more than economists had expected, and the Labor Department said that more jobs were lost in June and July than previously thought. So far, 605,000 jobs have disappeared since January. The unemployment rate, which rose from 5.7 percent in July, is now at its highest level since September 2003. Jared Bernstein, economist at the Economics Policy Institute in Washington, said eight months of consecutive job losses had historically signaled that the economy was in a recession. "If anyone is still scratching their head over that one, they can stop," Mr. Bernstein said. Stocks fell after the release of the report, with the Dow Jones industrials down about 100 points after about 40 minutes of trading. [8]
(美国劳工部的一份报告显示，美国的失业率上升到了6.1%，达到了5年来的最高点。 岗位数量一个月内降低了84000个，超过的经济学家的预期。目前，605000个工作岗位从1月份开始就陆续消失了。美国道琼斯指数由于这份报告的发布在40分钟内狂泻了100点)

1．3）Liquidity crisis（清偿危机）
During the weekend of September 13–14, Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy after failing to find a buyer, Bank of America agreed to purchase Merrill Lynch, the insurance company AIG sought a bridge loan from the Federal Reserve, and a consortium of 10 banks created an emergency fund of at least $70 billion to deal with the effects of Lehman's closure, similar to the consortium put forth by J.P. Morgan during the stock market panic of 1907 and the crash of 1929. Stocks on "Wall Street" tumbled on September 15.
On September 16, news emerged that the Federal Reserve may give AIG an $85 billion (£48 billion) rescue package; on September 17, 2008, this was confirmed. The terms of the rescue package were that the Federal Reserve would receive an 80% public stake in the firm. The biggest bank failure in history occurred on September 25 when JP Morgan Chase agreed to purchase the banking assets of Washington Mutual. [9]
（9月13-14日，雷曼兄弟公司宣布破产，美国银行同意收购美林证券，AIG保险公司也寻求联邦储备局的过渡性融资，10大财团组织了一个700亿的紧急基金用于处理雷曼公司的破产问题。9月16号，有消息透露，联邦储备局预资助AIG公司850亿美元的援助资金。这一计划可能使得联邦储备局将占有公司80%的公共股份。）

1．4）Bailout of U.S. financial system（美国金融系统紧急援助）
On September 17, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke advised Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson that a large amount of public money would be needed to stabilize the financial system. Short selling on 799 financial stocks was banned on September 19. Companies were also forced to disclose large short positions.[42] The Secretary of the Treasury also indicated that money market funds will create an insurance pool to cover themselves against losses and that the government will buy mortgage-backed securities from banks and investment houses. Initial estimates of the cost of the Treasury bailout proposed by the Bush Administration's draft legislation (as of September 19, 2008) were in the range of $700 billion to $1 trillion U.S. dollars. President George W. Bush asked Congress on September 20, 2008 for the authority to spend as much as $700 billion to purchase troubled mortgage assets and contain the financial crisis. The crisis continued when the United States House of Representatives rejected the bill and the Dow Jones took a 777 point plunge. A revised version of the bill was later passed by Congress, but the stock market continued to fall nevertheless. [10]
（9月17日联邦储备局主席建议大部分的公款将用来稳定美国的金融系统。799支卖空的金融股票被叫停，并强制其公开交易中未抛空的差额。财政部指出，货币市场基金将创建一个保险金库，政府将会从银行和投资者手中买下那些抵押资产。同时布什总统也要求国会通过7000亿的资金计划去购买那些不良抵押资产以控制金融危机的继续恶化）

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